Tuesday I gave you some picks for a few of the smaller categories. Today I’m here to crown my hypothetical victors for the performance & directing categories and overall Best Picture. Just about three more days until the festivities!
Actor in a Leading Role
(Javier Bardem in “Biutiful,” Jeff Bridges in “True Grit,” Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network,” Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech,” James Franco in “127 Hours”)
Who I think will win: Firth
Who I hope will win: Franco
In this category, I haven’t seen Bardem’s performance, but my personal favorite is James Franco. I’ve been a fan since he played Daniel Desario on Freaks and Geeks, and I thought he was terrific in 127 Hours. The film is pretty much all Franco, with plenty of long stretches with no dialogue at all but his performance was captivating. As for whom the Academy will pick, history from this awards season suggest it will go to Colin Firth as The King’s Speech has really pulled ahead overall. Bridges, the pick in this category last year, was fantastic, but the Academy is unlikely to pick this performance.
Actress in a Leading Role
(Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right,” Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole,” Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone,” Natalie Portman in “Black Swan,” Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”)
Who I think will win: Portman
Who I hope will win: Portman
In this race, I’ve yet to see Blue Valentine and most likely won’t see Rabbit Hole, but I don’t think seeing those movies would change my opinion here. I didn’t like a whole lot of anything in TKAAR, and Bening was a large part of that for me. Jennifer Lawrence was pretty great in Winter’s Bone, but Natalie (admittedly a long, long-time favorite of mine) just had so much more to work with and really played the hell out of the role. Also, I want more clips of her dorky laugh to be looped by the internet.
Actor in a Supporting Role
(Christian Bale in “The Fighter,” John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone,” Jeremy Renner in “The Town,” Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right,” Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech”)
Who I think will win: Bale
Who I hope will win: Bale
There’s no denying that Bale stole the show in The Fighter. As for the rest of the field, Hawkes was haunting in Winter’s Bone and Rush surely played his role with enthusiasm, but I don’t think they can top Bale. I’m happy to see Renner pick up a nom for another Boston-set movie, The Town. As for Ruffalo, I don’t think he was as good as this nomination suggests, but he was the most enjoyable part of The Kids are All Right for me.
Actress in a Supporting Role
(Amy Adams in “The Fighter,” Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech,” Melissa Leo in “The Fighter,” Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit,” Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”)
Who I think will win: Leo; Steinfeld for the upset
Who I hope will win: Steinfeld
I’ve seen all but Animal Kingdom, so I can’t speak to that. I know Leo has been the frontrunner, but I didn’t think her performance was all that great and she’s gone a little off the rails with her recent success, so this race could be back up in the air. I thought Adams was better in The Fighter, and as for King’s Speech & Bonham Carter, I thought she was believable and well-cast, as it’s not really what you would think of for her but it worked. But I’m definitely in the Steinfeld camp here, as the young Hailee was just spectacular in this role. I caught the original True Grit on AMC this weekend and was able to see just how much Steinfeld sounded and acted like Kim Darby and yet was able to come off so much more likable and interesting.
Directing
(“Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky, ”The Fighter” David O. Russell, ”The King’s Speech” Tom Hooper, “The Social Network” David Fincher, ”True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen)
Who I think will win: Fincher
Who I hope will win: Fincher
Not that I’ve necessarily given you my Best Picture prediction yet (spoiler alert: it’s the next category!), but it’s unusual for the Directing and Best Picture awards to be split, but I think this is the year. Fincher managed to direct one hell of an exciting movie despite the fact that major portions of the movie involve legal proceedings and website coding as “the action.” This could also go to Aronofsky for utilizing thriller and horror aspects to tell the story of a ballerina’s mental breakdown. I don’t think Hooper will win this, even if TKS picks up the Best Picture.
Best Picture
(Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone)
Who I think will win: The King’s Speech
Who I hope will win: The Social Network
First things first, I do not hate The King’s Speech. However, I did see if after it had picked up it’s Golden Globes and SAG awards and I fear I may have viewed the film within that greater picture instead of on its own merits. Still, I honestly can’t understand the logic that places this film above at least three of the other nominees. After much internal debate, I finally settled on The Social Network. To be fair, I’m a fan of the subject matter and the writer, but I truly believe it told the story well, in a way that was both very interesting, suspenseful, and satisfying. And I even knew the whole story already. So much of it was just perfect, like the Henley racing scene, (to quote the script) the Winklevi’s meeting with President Summers in Mass Hall, and even the oddly fascinating legal meetings. The other movies I was torn about include 127 Hours and True Grit, both movies which I didn’t expect to love as much as I did. Black Swan and Inception were also very enjoyable movies that kept me interested throughout, despite any flaws or holes that were apparent later. Winter’s Bone took a while to get my attention, but by the last half I was fully invested in the story. Toy Story 3 probably shouldn’t be nominated for Best Picture, after all there is a separate category specifically for animated features. I’m also not big on The King’s Speech, The Fighter, and The Kids Are All Right, as I thought they would all better than they were.
And finally, should you have any doubt about how Franco and Hathaway will perform on Sunday, worry no more:
